New Delhi: Indian households got some relief in November as the cost of preparing both vegetarian and non-vegetarian meals fell 13% from a year earlier, according to Crisil’s monthly Roti Rice Rate index.

The decline, driven largely by softer prices of vegetables and pulses, marks one of the steepest annual drops in thali prices in recent months and offers some respite to consumers after a period of uneven food inflation.

The Crisil report tracks the movement in key kitchen staples across regions and reflects how changing commodity prices influence the daily food budget.

Crisil’s analysis shows a significant correction in prices of tomatoes, onions and potatoes, which form the base of most home-cooked meals.

Tomato prices fell 17% year-over-year due to higher supplies, while potato prices dropped 29% year-on-year on a high base, and onion prices slid 53% as large stocks from the previous rabi season, combined with weak exports, eased pressure.

Pulses also became cheaper, falling 17%, after higher imports of Bengal gram, yellow peas and black gram in FY26 increased domestic supply and brought prices down.

Non-veg thali

The non-vegetarian thali also became cheaper, falling 13% on-year and 1% month-on-month as broiler prices declined by 12% in November.

Chicken accounts for roughly half the cost of a non-vegetarian plate, and the report notes a sizable drop due to oversupply in the market.

Lower vegetable and pulse prices reinforced the decline, though the fall was partially offset by a 6% rise in vegetable oil prices during the festival season and a similar increase in domestic LPG cylinder prices, both of which added to cooking costs.

On a month-on-month basis, the picture was mixed. The cost of a vegetarian thali rose 2% in November because potato and tomato prices increased by 5% and 14%, respectively, after earlier declines. The cost of a non-vegetarian thali dipped 1% on account of an estimated 5% fall in broiler prices amid oversupply in the market.

The easing in thali costs comes at a time when policymakers are closely watching food inflation, which has been volatile this year due to weather disruptions, uneven supply cycles and export restrictions.

Economists say sustained softness in these categories will be crucial for stabilising retail inflation, given their outsized weight in the consumption basket.

“In November, the cost of both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis fell 13% year-on-year mainly because vegetable and pulse prices eased. Tomato arrivals improved, potato prices corrected from a high base, and onion prices dropped sharply due to abundant rabi stock and subdued exports. Pulse prices softened as higher imports last fiscal increased domestic availability,” said Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence.

Over the medium term, onion prices are expected to firm up because of delayed kharif harvesting and lower yields. "Potato prices, however, are likely to moderate further as cold-storage stocks are released into the market. Prices of pulses are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, shaped by two key factors: first, the 30% import duty on yellow pea, which lends upside support, and second, unrestricted imports of black gram, which limit steep price increases,” said Sharma.

Any additional policy intervention, such as extending or altering import duties, could exert further upward pressure on pulse prices, Sharma added.

The drop in prices comes in the backdrop of India’s retail inflation easing to 0.25% in October, down from 1.44% the previous month. This is the third time in four months that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation has come in below the lower tolerance limit of the Reserve Bank of India’s 2–6% target band.

Earlier, Mint reported on 27 November that retail tomato prices had crossed ₹80 per kg in Delhi, similar to trends seen in other parts of the country, after cyclone-related disruptions hit key growing regions in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

To contain the rise, the consumer affairs ministry began selling “Janata” brand tomatoes at ₹52 per kg through the National Cooperative Consumers’ Federation of India (NCCF).

As per the Mint report, the retail price of tomatoes in Delhi stood at ₹80 per kg on 25 November, a 66.7% increase from ₹48 per kg a year ago. A similar trend was visible in other metros. In Kolkata, prices rose to ₹73 per kg from ₹52, while in Chennai they increased to ₹75 per kg from ₹40 last year.

RBI Rate cut: The Reserve Bank of India delivered a 25 bps rate cut, lowering the repo rate to 5.25% in a unanimous decision that reflected unusual confidence in the disinflation trend. With CPI inflation now projected at just 2% for FY26, brokerages believe the central bank has moved decisively into a pro-growth mode—raising the question: Is another rate cut coming in 2026?

The RBI held its stance at neutral (5:1 vote), while simultaneously announcing aggressive liquidity support through ₹1 trillion of OMOs and USD 5 billion in 3-year buy–sell swaps.

But the real debate brewing in the market is whether today’s cut marks the beginning of a cycle—or the last move for now.

Will ther be another rate cut in 2026?

Most research firms interpreted the policy as clearly accommodative. Nuvama Institutional Equities argued that the central bank is preparing the ground for smoother transmission and potentially more easing if global conditions weaken. According to the brokerage, “We anticipate at least an additional 25 bps rate cut in this cycle, particularly if global trade slows down.”

Nuvama also noted that while consumption is set to outpace exports and domestic capex, a broad-based pickup in demand remains unlikely in the near term. This, combined with benign inflation, strengthens the case for another cut—though timing remains uncertain.

CareEdge Ratings, however, took a more cautious view. The ratings agency said the RBI acted at a moment when inflation pressures are minimal, giving it room to stimulate growth, but argued that the window for further easing may be narrow. CareEdge stated, “Even though there is scope for another 25 bps rate cut based on the inflation projection, we expect the MPC to pause and preserve the policy space for a future rate cut only if the growth outlook worsens.”

The agency highlighted that several drivers of early-year growth—such as an early festive season, GST rationalisation effects, and export front-loading—may not repeat in the coming quarters. With external risks rising and U.S. tariffs continuing to pressure exports, the RBI may prefer to conserve ammunition.

Macro Signals Favour Easing

India’s macro data has strengthened the argument for more easing. GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY26, after 7.8% in Q1, driven by robust manufacturing and continued services momentum. Consumption has responded well to inflation cooling and tax rationalisation, while the festive season provided an early lift.

The inflation backdrop is even more compelling:

• CPI fell to 0.3% in October 2025
• Food and beverages category moved into deflation
• Inflation excluding precious metals stands at 2.5%
• The RBI’s own inflation estimate for FY26 is now 2%

These conditions would normally justify additional rate cuts.

Yet fiscal realities could stand in the way. With the government prioritising consolidation, the MPC may be cautious about overcommitting monetary easing in case downside risks materialise later in the year.

Brokerages broadly agree on one point: the RBI has created space for another cut, but whether it uses it will depend on external shocks, consumption trends, and global trade conditions.

So, Will There Be One More Rate Cut in 2026?

If global demand wanes, or if domestic growth loses momentum in H2 FY26, the RBI could deploy another 25 bps cut as Nuvama expects. But if growth holds steady, the central bank may do exactly what CareEdge predicts—pause and preserve firepower for later.

For now, the RBI has opened the door to more easing. Whether it walks through that door will depend on how the next few months unfold.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.